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Market range to be between 67/69
05
Feb '08
We are flirting with the top of the latest sideways trading range as we closed near the highs of the day. The biggest reason was related to heavy fund buying in the soybean market which carried over into corn and wheat as well. There were negative weather reports from Brazil about excessive moisture which can impact the large Southern Hemisphere crop in Brazil.

The grains just continue to feed on each other and cotton is forced to come along for the ride. Volume was average with 27,000 futures and 14,000 options as we are looking to break out of the current range. The spec hedge report shows only a small decrease in the long position to 24.8% as open interest is getting back near the record high at 280k as shown on page 2 in attached PDF.

March options are expiring this week, and we have several key reports coming out on Friday which will certainly have a strong impact on price direction. After several sessions of trading between 67.50 and 68.50, the latest rally in grains have tested the highs and look like they are prepared to break out even higher.

This will force cotton to follow as we continue to fight for new crop acreage. The NCC will make their first estimate for 08/09 cotton acres at their annual meeting in Memphis on Friday.

The relative strength index remains near unchanged and prices are holding the low at the 50-day moving average. We may continue to play the range between 67/69 until more information comes out on Friday.

The 50 and 9 day moving averages are starting to get closer as we move sideways and this could be a factor as we wait for a break in this current flag pattern. Grains will continue to have the biggest impact as we get closer to new crop planting and the fight for acreage.

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ECOM USA Inc


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