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Significant fall in NY cotton prices
06
Feb '08
Market fell back into the trading range today after weakness in foreign equity markets in Europe and negative service sector job growth. The U.S. markets followed and came off significantly to close on or near the lowest closing levels of the year.

We continue to see a tight range in the stock market as we also are having trouble taking out the highs in the grains and cotton set recently. Wheat did manage a strong close again today after bullish supply news from Canada based on the winter harvest.

Volume remained average with only 23,000 futures and 9,000 options as we continue to move sideways awaiting the big reports coming out on Thursday and Friday.

With option expiration coming on Friday as well, there is interest in keeping the market in a tight range as many strikes are vulnerable under 67 cents based H'08. However, depending on the USDA S&D news as well as the NCC acreage intention report coming out on Friday, we may see some increased testing of the downside next week.

Chinese New Year kicks off on the 7th of February and demand will be sluggish unless there is a significant fall in NY cotton prices. The dollar made a nice bounce today and is showing signs that a low may be in while the equity markets continue to show signs of weakness and uncertainty nearby.

The relative strength index remains near unchanged and prices are holding the low at the 50-day moving average. We may continue to play the range between 67/69 until more information comes out on Friday. The 50 and 9 day moving averages continue to get closer as we move sideways and this could be a factor as we wait for a break in this current flag pattern.

Grains will continue to have the biggest impact as we get closer to new crop planting and the fight for acreage.

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