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Big changes in the cotton S&D numbers
07
Feb '08
Markets overnight in Asia were taking profits in front of the long holiday for Chinese New Year starting tomorrow. Europe managed to stay mostly unchanged and even the U.S. markets opened higher until a member of the Federal Reserve made a comment in the afternoon about the difficulty to lower interest rates further with the growing threat of inflation.

This put the market on the defensive and erased the earlier gains and pushed the market to new lows. Cotton also made a rally early and found buy stops above the sideways trading range we have been locked in for several days. However, the gap near 70 cents above the market held strong as the soybeans and corn also tried to follow and set new highs, but were unable.

Volume was above average with 44,000 futures and 23,000 options as we prepare for the large hedge funds to start rolling the H'08 with over 100k in open interest and only 11 trading days until first notice day.

The action in cotton today, made the bears more comfortable that we may have put in a high short term as the upside resistance at 70 cents seems strong enough to hold up and we may go back and test the downside of the range. We are expecting an average export sales report tomorrow possibly between 200/300k with 200/250k in shipments.

However, the big news will be coming out on Friday and even though we are not expecting any big changes in the cotton S&D numbers, the grains will be much more important, just like they werelast month. The acreage report will not come out until after the close on Friday which will also be a big factor next week.


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