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Cotton market sees light volume
26
Jun '08
Today's market was stuck in the familiar trade range as we dipped early on weak oil prices to test the lows and eventually pushed higher to close near the top of the range on light volume. We seem to be carving out a sideways trading range based Z'08 with good support at 78.50 and good resistance above 81.50.

Until we get more information or have a significant change in the commodity complex, these highs and lows should stay in place. Volume was light with only 12,000 contracts and 9,000 options as we may continue to see the market work through the last of the N'08 contracts as we had only 800 contracts left this morning.

Export sales tomorrow should be on the low side but higher than last week. However, the next big news arrives on Monday with the revised acreage numbers which should show another cut in cotton acreage to possibly 9 million acres or 380,000 less than the March 31st number.

West Texas continues to get scattered precipitation mixed with some reports of hail so the uncertainty for new crop remains high, but the lack of business and scale up trade selling should keep a top on prices.

Technically, the market is looking toppy with several commodity sectors trading at contract highs. The MACD's are turning south recently in several of these sectors as we have been moving sideways and running into strong upside resistance.

Cotton will continue to follow the other commodities prices as the dollar and equity markets struggle, but our market is finding good resistance at these levels and will have to wait and see if it can break through or we eventually go lower.

At the moment, demand is dead, cert stocks are rising and we are seeing a slow down in the commodity index which could set us up for a pull back.

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