What a day for commodities across the board which fed on negative reports out of the financial sector and eventually snowballed 3% lower on record oil prices. After setting a new intraday high, the stock market reached the lowest levels since September 11th, 2006.
Volume was estimated at 14,000 futures and 10,000 options as cotton was one of the few commodities not to participate in the strong rally across the board.
There seems to be some positioning for next weeks acreage report on Monday where we will see some cut backs in acreage. However, the export sales today was a seasonal low with only 20,000 bales and exports were in line with the 4 week average at 280k.
Cert stocks keep rising and demand is very weak, but we cannot deny the momentum is pouring into commodities and will have to see if they can keep this going tomorrow as cotton has strong upside resistance.
Technically, the market is struggling to close above 82 cents even after such a strong rally across the board today. Oil is obviously the most important factor short term as the equity markets will continue to weaken and give strength to commodities if this rally continues.
Cotton will continue to follow the other commodities prices as the dollar and equity markets struggle, but our market is finding good resistance at these levels and will have to wait and see if it can break through or we eventually go lower.
At the moment, demand is dead, cert stocks are rising but we are seeing a rebound in the commodity sector which could set us up for more upside.
20240830145952.gif)
.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "UBM China (Shanghai)")
-Ltd..jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Thermore (Far East) Ltd.")
