At 14.5 million bales, U.S. exports are expected to account for 36 percent of the global cotton trade in 2008/09, similar to that in 2007/08. U.S. mill use, on the other hand, was increased 100,000 bales this month to 4.4 million bales despite the slowing economy. While mill use is projected to decline 4 percent from 2007/08, several factors are supporting it, including the weaker dollar, overseas transportation costs, and the mill payments included in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008.
Based on these supply and demand estimates, 2008/09 ending stocks are expected to fall considerably during the 2008/09 season. Stocks are projected at 5.3 million bales on July 31, 2009, compared with estimated stocks of 10.2 million on August
1, 2008. The stocks-to-use ratio is currently projected at 28 percent, compared with 55 percent for the current season ending this month.
United States Department of Agriculture
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