World cotton area is projected to continue declining for the third consecutive season in 2009/10. Decreasing cotton returns, more attractive prices for competing crops, and expected difficulties in financing inputs are encouraging farmers to continue switching to alternative crops.
World cotton area is forecast down by 3% to 30.1 million hectares in 2009/10. World cotton production is expected to decrease by 1% to 23.5 million tons.
World cotton mill use is expected to remain almost stable in 2009/10 at 23.9 million tons. World cotton imports are forecast to rebound by 1.1 million tons in 2009/10 to 7.5 million tons, helped by the expected small recovery in mill use in China (Mainland). World cotton stocks are projected down by 3% to 11.9 million tons in 2009/10.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 projects the season-average Cotlook A Index at 60 cents per pound in 2008/09, down by 18% from last season. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 56 to 65 cents per pound. The Secretariat's projected 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index has declined every month since September 2008, due to a worsening consumption outlook.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
International Cotton Advisory Committee
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