Cotton still under pressure, but fundamentals look more positive

10 Mar '09

1 min read

Cotton remains under pressure as demand is still hand to mouth but the fundamentals are looking more positive. However, technically the equity and commodity markets have very little reason to go up. The stock market has come down almost 1% a day for the last 20 trading days.

We just cannot build a bottom in the global equity markets and they still look bearish technically and fundamentally. Volume is very light with only 11,000 futures and 1,900 options as seasonals are still very bearish at these levels.

Spec hedge was shorter at 14.3% as opposed to 12.8% last week as you can see on page 2 in attached PDF. This trend looks like scale up trade selling and sell stops are keeping the market from building a bottom as we are close to testing the K'09 low at 40.25 c/lb.

Open interest remains low and cert stocks are stable. We have a USDA report on Wednesday, but not expecting any big changes nor a big sales report on Thursday. For now the downside trading range remains in place.

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