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Higher AWP to support market next week
28
Mar '09
Some profit taking in the equity markets after a strong week lead to a bounce in the USD and pull back in the commodities. The market still closed above technical support lines and should see some further follow through higher next week.

The USDA acreage report on Tuesday will be a big factor in keeping this rally going. Most estimates are around 8.3 million acres which is still a 12% cut in acres from last season but higher than the 8.1 NCC number last month.

Demand remains strong on this pull back and the higher AWP next week will raise the level of resistance in K'09 to 46 c/lb. There is good scale down support and the COT report on page 2 (attached PDF) shows that the index and spec funds are increasing their long positions while the trade are sellers.

There have been large amounts of physical cotton sold, but also 2 million bales were redeemed last week so there is strong commercial scale up selling. Cotton should continue to move in this current sideways to higher trading range between 43/46 next week.

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