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Daily worldwide cotton market report
19
May '09
Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 57.55 with a gain of 125 points, the October 09 closed at 59.62 with a gain of 135 points, while the December 09 closed at 60.38 with a gain of 131 points. The cotlook A index declared settled at 60.90 with a loss of 130 points today.

The spot rate of KCA moved once again towards a new high and the settlement declared at Rs. 3750/=, with an increase of Rs. 50/= today. In the domestic market today 1000 bales of Noor Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=, 600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, 400 bales of Haroon Abad sold at Rs. 3700/=, 500 bales of Peer Mahal sold at Rs. 3525/=, 2047 bales of Liaquat Pur sold at Rs. 3600/=, 1600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan at Rs. 3700/=.

Investor buying enthusiasm to the first USDA Supply/Demand forecast for the 09/10 marketing year shifted by mid week after the U.S. April retail sales were released on Wednesday and showed less of a decline than March, but a decline nevertheless. The decline accelerated on Friday after news circulated that the Chinese government was preparing to release between 500,000 and 700,000 tons of cotton reserves for auction as early as next week.

The lack of any renewed U.S. export inquiry coupled with momentum extremes to the upside aided the precipitous decline on Friday. Open interest increased 7,875 contracts on the week's trade to leave 139,150 contracts open as of Thursday's close.

The CFTC reported that as of May 12th, funds were long 16.0% in futures only up from 15.1% long the previous week. Fund longs increased by 4,063 contracts and shorts increased by 1,313 contracts. Total fund longs now total 39,352 contracts versus shorts totaling 17,356 contracts.

U.S. cotton under lean as of May 12th was 563,241 down 346,618 bales. There were 250,865 bales under Form A and 502,974 bales under Form G.

According to IBD, industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which was the smallest decline in six months. "Actual output hit a 10-year low as capacity utilization fell to the lowest on record." The New York manufacturing index in May rose to -4.55 from April's -14.65 and March's record low -38.23.

We still suggest that the general commodity price environment will be dictated by the trend in U.S. equity prices. Fund managers will continue to use the leading economic barometer to forecast the pace of the economic recovery. Stock values have soared 37% from the March 9th low to the May 8th close. The fear is that current stock valuations may be overstating companies' abilities to generate earnings to justify the current P.E. ratios.

This concern was magnified by the weaker than expected report on retail sales last week. The bright spot over the past two quarters is that companies have slashed capital spending by the most since the 1930s and eliminated inventories for six quarters in a row, including the largest liquidation on record last quarter.

The massive reversal down last week would signal the completion of the 10-week rally. While the setback late last seek has down much to correct the heavily overbought conditions, the reversal down caps the rally and points the near term trend down. With the momentum more neutral, it would allow the cotton market to recover some of Friday's decline without reversing the potential for a more significant correction.


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