China is forecast to import 12.5 million bales in 2010/11, up 14 percent from the preceding year and the highest import to be seen in 4 years. Bangladesh's 2010/11 imports are forecast to increase 6 percent from the previous year to 4.25 million bales, while Indonesia's imports are expected to rise 5 percent to 2.2 million bales.
Turkey is expected to import 3.4 million bales in 2010/11, down 21 percent from a year earlier, and Turkey will once again rank behind Bangladesh as the third largest cotton importer globally. The biggest percentage rebound is expected in Pakistan, where 2010/11 imports are forecast at 2.3 million bales, a 53-percent increase from the preceding year.
World Consumption to Make a Slight Recovery in 2010/11
Global cotton mill use in 2010/11 is forecast at 12.1 million bales, up 2.7 percent from the previous year. This improvement in world cotton consumption mirrors the most recent International Monetary Fund's (IMF) expectation for mixed economic prospects, highlighted in the July 2010 edition of the World Economic Outlook. According to the IMF report, the global economy is expected to grow at 4.6 percent in 2010 and then 4.3 percent 2011. Unlike the developing countries, where growth prospects are relatively better, advanced economies face a slow path to recovery in the year ahead.
China, the world's leading mill user is forecast to consume 50 million bales in 2010/11, up 3 percent from the previous year. India's mill use in 2010/11 is forecast to increase 4 percent to 20.4 million bales, while Turkey is expected to consume 6 million bales, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Brazil is expected to consume 4.6 million bales, up 4.5 percent from the previous year. In Pakistan, the 2010/11 mill use is projected at 11.5 million bales, unchanged from the previous year.
Global Stocks to Decline in 2010/11
Global ending stocks in 2010/11 are forecast at 45.6 million bales, down 4 percent from a year earlier and the lowest in 13 years. Meanwhile, the projected stocks-to use ratio of 38 percent is 2 percentage points below 2009/10 and the lowest since a similar ratio was recorded in 1994/95. The forecast decline in global cotton ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to put further upward pressure on the world price of the fiber, and the Cotlook A-index is expected to rise accordingly in 2010/11 to its highest in recent years.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
20240830145952.gif)
20240924091343.png)
.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "UBM China (Shanghai)")
-Ltd..jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Thermore (Far East) Ltd.")
