After rebounding in 2010/11, global cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast to set a new record of 123.8 million bales, up 8.3 percent from the previous year. A strong producer response to higher market prices is expected to drive new crop projections.
China, India, and Pakistan are forecast to produce 33 million bales, 27 million bales, and 10.3 million bales, up 8 percent, 13 percent, and 17 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Australia and the United States are projected to produce 4.25 million bales and 17 million bales, respectively, in 2011/12, a decline of 3 percent and 6 percent. Brazil's production is forecast to remain unchanged at 9.3 million bales in 2011/12.
Global cotton area is projected at 35.7 million hectares, up 7 percent from a year ago. India, which is forecast to expand harvested area to a record 12 million hectares, will account for 38 percent of the 2011/12 global area increase. China's cotton area is forecast at 5.5 million hectares, a 7-percent increase from a year earlier. The world yield in 2011/12 is forecast at 754 kg/ha.
Global Trade Projected to Rise Further in 2011/12
World cotton exports are forecast at 39.4 million bales, an increase of 10 percent from the preceding year and the second largest trade on record. Australia and Brazil are forecast to expand exports by 61 percent and 130 percent, to 4.5 million bales and 4.6 million bales, respectively, from a year ago. In the African Franc Zone and Uzbekistan, 2011/12 exports are forecast at 2.6 million bales and 3.2 million bales, up 25 percent and 15 percent, respectively, from the previous year.
In the United States and India, 2011/12 exports are forecast to decline 13 percent and 4 percent to 13 million bales and 4.8 million bales, respectively, from a year ago. China, the world's largest cotton importer, is projected to import 16 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 28 percent from a year earlier and 41 percent of global trade. Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Turkey are forecast to import 4 million bales, 1.95 million bales and 3.5 million bales, up 4 percent, 8 percent, and 3 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Pakistan's 2011/12 imports are forecast at 1.3 million bales, down 13 percent from the preceding year.
World 2011/12 Mill Use and Stocks to Rebound
Global cotton consumption in 2011/12 is forecast to rise 3 percent from a year ago to 119 million bales. China and India are projected to consume 47.5 million bales and 21.5 million bales, up 2 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Mill use in 2011/12 is also forecast to rise in Pakistan and Turkey by 5 percent and 3 percent, to 10.8 million bales and 6.1 million bales, respectively.
World ending stocks in 2011/12 are projected at 48.3 million bales, a 12-percent increase from the previous year. China's ending stocks in 2011/12 are projected at 13.1 million bales, up 12 percent from thepreceding year and 27 percent of the projected global stocks. Brazil's 2011/12 ending stocks are projected at 8.4 million bales, a 4-percent increase from a year earlier and 17 percent of world ending stocks. In the United States and India, 2011/12 stocks are projected at 2.5 million bales and 6.5 million bales, up 11 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from the previous year.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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