US ports' cargo volume forecast to taper off ahead of holiday season

Inflation and rising interest rates were the main factors behind the ebbing consumer confidence, leading to reduced discretionary spending. Notably, consumer spending only rose by 1.8 per cent YoY in Q2, falling short of the initial 2.3 per cent projection. The NRF also hinted that annual retail sales might lean towards the lower end of its 4-6 per cent YoY growth forecast.

While the Global Port Tracker had originally projected US port volumes to touch the 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) between August and October, actual figures depict a different reality. August witnessed the handling of 1.96 million TEU, marking a 2.3 per cent increase from July, and becoming the most bustling month of the current year. However, this figure also represents a significant 13.5 per cent decline YoY. Predictions for September and October both stand at 1.94 million TEU, reflecting drops of 4.3 per cent and 3.1 per cent YoY, respectively, as per the report.

The upcoming months, however, offer a glimmer of positivity. November's forecast is set at 1.91 million TEU, suggesting a promising 7.5 per cent YoY increase—the first since June 2022. December is projected at 1.88 million TEU, an 8.9 per cent rise YoY. With these figures, 2023's cumulative imports could amount to 22.1 million TEU, a 13.5 per cent decline from the previous year. To offer perspective, 2022 experienced a cargo volume of 25.5 million TEU, only 1.2 per cent below the record 25.8 million TEU in 2021.

Looking ahead, January 2024 shares December's forecast of 1.88 million TEU, a 4.2 per cent YoY increase. Meanwhile, February, typically a quieter month due to Asia's Lunar New Year shutdowns, is anticipated to hit 1.74 million TEU, marking a significant 12.7 per cent surge YoY.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)