“Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size,” Dr Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2021 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2021 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January at the 2022 NCC annual meeting.

“History has shown that US farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2021, prices of all commodities are trading significantly higher. However, input costs are also much higher than this time last year,” Campiche added.

Southeast respondents indicate a 3.7 per cent increase in cotton acreage to 2.4 million acres. In Alabama, survey responses indicate a 5.0 per cent increase in cotton acreage. Georgia growers expect to plant 1.3 per cent more cotton, while the survey indicates an 8.0 per cent increase in North Carolina’s cotton area. South Carolina growers expect to plant 10.0 per cent more cotton, with Virginia growers expanding their cotton acreage by 4.7 per cent. According to the survey responses, the expected increase in cotton acres is due to a decline in corn acres and peanut acres to a lesser extent. With a 4.0 per cent decline, Florida is the only state in the region showing a decrease in cotton acres, with those producers shifting to soybeans.

Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.9 million acres, an increase of 14.6 per cent from the previous year. Across the region, all states intend to increase cotton acreage. In Arkansas, respondents indicated a 15.7 per cent increase in cotton acreage; Louisiana growers expect to plant 51.2 per cent more cotton; in Mississippi, respondents indicated 6.5 per cent more cotton acreage; Missouri growers expect to increase cotton acres by 5.9 per cent; and Tennessee’s respondents indicated a 21.1 per cent increase in cotton. In all states, survey responses suggest that cotton is increasing acres at the expense of corn.

Southwest growers intend to increase cotton acreage by 7.0 per cent to 7.4 million acres. Each of the three states plan to increase cotton acres with Kansas up 15.2 per cent, Oklahoma increasing by 5.6 per cent, and Texas calling for a 6.9 per cent increase. Responses indicate a shift from sorghum to cotton, with Texas producers also planting less wheat, according to the survey.

With intentions of 156,000 acres, producers in the West expect to plant 14.1 per cent less acres of upland cotton. Upland acreage is expected to decrease in Arizona and California by 22.7 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively. New Mexico growers expect to increase upland acreage by 10.0 per cent in 2022. Water constraints continue to affect planting decisions in Arizona and California.

ELS acreage is expected to increase by 24.8 per cent in 2022 to 158,000 acres, likely driven by the all-time highs being seen in ELS cotton prices. Respondents indicated an increase of 30.4 per cent in California, 5.9 per cent in Arizona, 11.0 per cent in New Mexico, and 16.3 per cent in Texas.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)