Global 2015/16 cotton crop to be down 7%: USDA

22 May '15

4 min read

Exports by the United States, the world’s leading exporter and Uzbekistan are projected to remain near their 2014/15 levels.

Exports from Brazil and Australia are forecast to decline 400,000 bales and 800,000 bales, respectively, in 2015/16, mainly due to lower supplies.

In contrast, India’s cotton exports at 5 million bales are projected to increase 28 per cent in 2015/16 following the dramatic decline experienced in 2014/15.

Exports from the rest of the world are expected to remain around 10 million bales in 2015/16.

With world cotton consumption forecast to exceed production for the first season since 2009/10, global ending stocks are expected to decline from the record set in 2014/15.

Stocks in 2015/16 are projected at 106.3 million bales, 4 million bales below the previous year and according to USDA, China will continue to hold the bulk of these stocks.

In 2015/16, stocks in China are forecast to decrease 3 million bales to 62.3 million bales but will still account for nearly 60 per cent of the world total.

Stocks in India and Brazil, the next largest stock holders are also expected to decline in 2015/16. Stocks in India are projected to dip below 14 million bales while those in Brazil are forecast at 6.4 million bales.

Together, these countries are expected to account for nearly 20 percent of global stocks in 2015/16, while US cotton stocks are forecast to remain at 4.4 million bales in 2015/16, the highest since 2008/09. (AR)

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