Fiber:Cost and Demand Trend Is Expected To Double Support PTA Optimistic

Short the futures market after the New Yearatmosphere of intense, frequent bad policy to guide the rapid decline of allcommodity prices, the international market of crude oil plummeted, the dollarrose, also makes the domestic price of chemicals once landed on the frontplatform. The PTA is concerned, the impact of the traditional low season, plusthe cost of supporting weaker upstream price callback rate increase.


Lunar New Year holiday, after the price droppedto relatively low, PTA appeared bottoms market, announced the preliminaryruling in the anti-dumping policy promulgated in March under the action ofexpect good demand, PTA began to rebound. In the market, the central bank totighten credit is generally considered a rate hike ahead of the backgroundsignal, I believe that the recovery in the economy had stabilized, theGovernment will continue to stimulate economic policy-oriented. In addition,scholars from the relevant judgments of the CPI in 2010 can also be seen thatthe current inflation expectations continue to increase in expected full year2010 CPI will show a "two low, intermediate high" pattern. Priceincreases late last year started, prices steadily higher, all this shows thatinflation is a step by step to promote higher commodity prices.


Comparison chart can be seen from the above, onePTA and PX correlation is very large, second, the last two years in March -7PTA prices showed upward trend during the month, and this period is also torestore domestic demand an important downstream textile stage. In the 2008financial crisis, in 2009 mainly out of the crisis as economic fundamentals,the first half of 2010, focus on economic recovery, the financial environment oncommodity market trends played a good supporting role.


In December 2009 from the Ministry of Commercebegan an investigation originating in South Korea and Thailand imported PTA,one year, on February 2 this year, recently announced the preliminary rulingissued, with bond measures in the form of implementation of the provisionalanti-dumping. 2009, China's imports from the PTA the two countries for 50% oftotal imports, once the dumping ruling establishment, the domestic spot marketprice of PTA will face the problem of rising costs.


Previously, leading to the end of last year, thePTA not fall up the cost factor has plagued many downstream firms, theintroduction of this policy will undoubtedly further raise prices. China'scrude oil import dependency at this stage more than 50%, while the PTA ismainly affected by the cost of international crude oil prices, in January underthe influence of the stronger dollar, crude oil deep edge lower, to some extentalleviated the pressure on the cost of PTA, however, Polyester in theoff-season sales as lower back, lower stocking polyester business initiativereduced the price can not be effectively supported. As a result of a strike byFrench refinery workers and oil stocks continued to fall, fell to 70 dollars pre/ barrel mark for crude oil gained some support in the technical basis for thebetter still, a substantial rise in inverse correlation with the U.S. dollarbegan to weaken. So I think that festival with the external environment of thedouble impact of rising crude oil prices will continue to promote the PTA.


The cost factors, the most important thing is PXprice, from New Year's Day since 2010, PX prices show downward trend. Thefigure can be seen from the last two years, PX prices dropped sharply at firstand then steady recovery process, and close to prices in 1000 U.S. dollars isrelatively stable. Caused the price decline is mainly due to overcapacity inthe market for PX concerns, from the domestic market in context, the currentcapacity expansion is to improve self-sufficiency rate of the domestic market,there is no surplus at this stage concerns, and PX production mainly relies onimported crude oil, so back to the late PX prices likely to top 1,000 U.S.dollars.


Demand for textiles from the terminal point ofview, the economy started to recover after the crisis countries in 2009, thedomestic textile industry has maintained steady growth, demand is expected tofurther enhance the post. In 2009 the output of chemical fiber and polyesterare up about 15%, we can see that the textile industry has started to recover.In addition, the consumption of the upcoming season, the Spring Festival startsafter the PTA general increased demand will also increase, thus driving pricesup.


In summary, I believe that the market willsteadily increase during the first half PTA main trend of the recent cost anddemand is expected to double the backing, is expected to exceed previous highs,the late positive trend bullish.


Here 'I' refers to the Author himself.


Source: www.goarticles.com