Growth forecast for ASEAN+3 region at 4.5% for 2024: AMRO

22 Jan '24

2 min read

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Insights

AMRO maintains its 2024 growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.5 per cent.
The outlook, driven by strong domestic demand and trade improvements, overcomes global uncertainties.
The 2023 growth projection is revised to 4.4 per cent, boosted by China's expected 5.2 per cent growth.
Inflation in the region is set to moderate to 2.6 per cent in 2024.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has reaffirmed its growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.5 per cent in 2024, as stated in its January quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO). This optimistic outlook is driven by robust domestic demand, moderating inflation, and continued improvements in trade, despite global economic uncertainties.

For the year 2023, the ASEAN+3 region is projected to achieve a growth rate of 4.4 per cent, slightly surpassing the October projection of 4.3 per cent. This upward revision is partly attributed to China's higher-than-expected growth, now forecasted at 5.2 per cent, up from the previous estimate of 5 per cent. China's stabilising industrial activities are expected to contribute significantly to the region's economic momentum in 2024, along with a gradual improvement in exports to other key global markets, AMRO said in a press release.

Inflationary pressures are showing signs of easing across member economies. Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is anticipated to moderate to 2.6 per cent in 2024, down from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2023. However, AMRO warns of persistent upside risks to inflation, with many economies still experiencing high core inflation rates.

AMRO also highlights potential risks to the region's growth. A recession in the US and euro area in 2024 could significantly impact the ASEAN+3 region, potentially halving its GDP growth. The risk is further compounded by the possibility of a slowdown in China's economic recovery, which could amplify the negative effects on the region’s growth.

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