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May delivery looks to resume normality

18
Apr '07

The electronic market started out a little firmer this morning, with the usual overnight foreign growth hedge lifting noted in the early dealings. Once the open outcry session opened, it was back to business as usual, with immediate pressure coming in from the funds.

May quickly challenged and failed to hold the 50 cent barrier, a level that was expected to remain solid support. Prices bounced soon after the re-opening, escalating to highs near the 51 cent level in May before another extended sell off broke it to new contract lows eventually at 49.70.

July broke into new contract lows as well, sinking to the 51.50 area before commercial support was enough to shore values back up. The May / July had another wild day, trading a range between 150 and 195 July over. The back months didn't enjoy quite so much volatility, but the ever popular December 07 contract continued to lose ground, falling back to a low of 56.41, just 14 points above the Dec contract lows.

Prices continued weak into the close, with only minor feeble attempts to recover throughout the session. In the end active months finished with losses of between 30 and 58 points. Today's estimated volume was again decent at 44,709 lots. Tomorrow's spec hedge report will likely document a reversal in the spec position from net long to net short.

The last 3 cents down in the May has seen a lot of position reversing from the funds, who are struggling to catch any trends in cotton of late, such has been the range bound nature of the market. We can expect specs to increase this bet, especially if the 50.00 cent area breaks which judging on many of the recent deliveries (with March 07 the exception to the rule) will likely take place in the next week.

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