Global cotton production up in Oct, trade mostly unchanged: US FAS

Consumption is mostly unchanged at 115.8 million bales and is forecast nearly 5 million bales higher compared with the previous year.

Global cotton trade is mostly unchanged from September at 43.2 million bales. Global ending stocks are down to 80 million bales due to historical revisions for Brazil. If realised, this would still be the second-highest level in four years.

The US season-average farm price for marketing year (MY) 2023-24 (August-July) is forecast unchanged at 80 cents per pound.

Changes to the placement of Brazil production has significant implications for global ending stocks as well as those in Brazil, USDA noted.

MY 2023-24 Brazil production forecast at 14.6 million bales is now expected to exceed US production for the first time. As the second-largest projected exporter at 11.8 million bales, Brazil is close to surpassing US exports for the first time since the nineteenth century.

Lower Brazil stocks also have significant implications for MY 2023-24 global stocks, which are now forecast at 80 million bales, 10 million lower compared with last month’s projection of 90 million bales.

Cotton futures were mostly unchanged since last month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) with prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) settling at roughly 85 cents per pound.

Despite a decline in commodity indices, including the Bloomberg Spot and the Standard & Poor’s Goldman Sachs, cotton futures resisted pressure and were somewhat supported by deteriorating crop conditions, the report said. However, expectations for higher and sustained US interest rates, coupled with lower US equities, pressured futures.

US prices were mostly unchanged at 81 cents per pound as macroeconomic concerns offset deteriorating crop conditions.

India future prices were down by more than 4 cents per pound to settle at 90 cents, likely due to greater arrivals of cotton at gin yards.

Brazil prices were down by more than 2 cents per pound to 80 cents as burgeoning supplies pressure prices.

Pakistan prices were unchanged at 71 cents per pound, the lowest spot price of the major producing origins. Despite a stronger Pakistani Rupee compared with last month, cotton lint priced in rupees fell by 8 per cent as MY 2023-24 production is forecast to rise by more than 2.5 million bales to 6.2 million bales.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)