Cotton consumption worldwide to rise strongly

13 Sep '05

2 min read

World cotton consumption is expected to rise 3.7 percent in 2005/06 to 112 million bales.

World production is expected to fall 8.4 percent to 110 million bales.

However, at about 50 million bales, world ending stocks are forecast only 1 million bales lower.

A 24.7-million-bale production gain in 2004/05 boosted this year's beginning stocks, sustaining stocks and consumption even as production falls.

The last few years have seen some of the most robust growth in world cotton consumption in decades (fig. 4). At the end of 2005/06, annual growth in world cotton consumption is expected to have averaged 3.9 percent over 5 years—a rate
cotton consumption hasn't achieved since the mid-1980s.

To some extent, this stems from unusually strong global demand for all fibers, but cotton has also benefited from an easing in the growth in chemical fiber use.

Cotton consumption has still grown more slowly than chemical fiber consumption since 2000/01, but has given up a much smaller share of the market for world fiber demand than before.

The variability of demand for cotton and other fibers contrasts with steady, strong growth in demand for vegetable oils, which has grown 4 to 5 percent annually decade after decade. Meat consumption has also grown more steadily, albeit more slowly, at 2 to 3 percent annually since 1975. Grain consumption has been more volatile, and typically has grown more slowly than cotton. Income gains in emerging markets and developing countries have shifted diets away from grains,
accounting for the differential performance among these food products.

In addition to income growth, cotton consumption is also influenced by changes in consumer taste and industrial investment in chemical fiber capacity. World income
growth has been relatively strong in recent years, and relative prices between polyester and cotton have been favorable to cotton.

United States Department of Agriculture

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