Foreign cotton stocks expected to decline in 2005/06

03 Dec '05

3 min read

Economic Research Service (ERS) published cotton & wool yearbook summary. The summary approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

World cotton ending stocks for 2005/06 (August/July marketing year) are forecast at nearly 50.2 million bales, 600,000 bales below a year earlier and nearly 2 million bales below 2001/02's record of 52.1 million.

The estimated reduction this season is attributable to the continued growth in global consumption and the reduction in world production from 2004/05's record crop. Foreign cotton stocks are also expected to decline in 2005/06, with reductions in a number of countries, including China. In contrast, stocks in the United States are forecast to rise 1 million bales in 2005/06 and are expected to be at their highest since 2001/02.

Global cotton production in 2005/06 is projected at 111.7 million bales, 7 percent below last season's record output of 120.4 million. Production is forecast lower in most of the major-producing countries, including China (4.5 million bales lower), Pakistan (1.8 million), and Brazil (1.2 million). These three countries are forecast to account for over 85 percent of the output reduction in 2005/06.

Meanwhile, India and the United States are expected to produce crops similar in size to those of 2004/05. Total foreign cotton production in 2005/06 is estimated at nearly 88.6 million bales, or about 9 percent below last season.

World consumption of cotton is forecast ata record 114.4 million bales, 5 percent above last season. Foreign cotton consumption is expected to reach a high of 108.4 million bales, while U.S. mill use declines further. Foreign mill use is expected to rise for the seventh consecutive season.

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