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Southern Hemisphere's share of cotton output to rise

06
Jan '16

Production in the Southern Hemisphere usually accounts for 8-10 per cent of total world production, but this share is expected to increase to 11 per cent in 2015/16.

“Cotton plantings for the Southern Hemisphere in 2015/16 season started in September 2015 and will continue through the start of 2016,” an ICAC press release stated.

“Despite low international cotton prices, growers in the Southern Hemisphere may increase planted area by 1 per cent to 2.9 million hectares,” the cotton body said.

Cotton area in Australia is projected to more than double to 300,000 hectares, with a greater percentage of cotton being planted on dry land area.

“Assuming a 27 per cent decline in the average yield to 1,867 kgs per hectare, production in Australia is forecast to increase by 11 per cent to 560,000 tons in 2015/16,” it averred.

Brazil on the other hand is expected to see area decrease by 4 per cent to 952,000 hectares and production may reach just under 1.5 million tons.

Production in the Northern Hemisphere is estimated at 20.6 million tons in 2015/16, of which India's production of around 6.2 million tons accounts for around 30 per cent of Northern Hemisphere production.

China's production is estimated at 5.3 million tons, down 19 per cent from 2014/15 and 35 per cent from the record of 8.1 million tons achieved in 2007/08.

“After achieving a record of 812 kgs per hectare last year, the average yield in Pakistan may decrease by 22 per cent to 637 kgs per hectare due to adverse weather and other factors,” ICAC informed.

A 13 per cent reduction in harvested area in the United States coupled with lower yields due in part to excessive rains in autumn are expected to lead to a fall in production of 18 per cent to 2.9 million tons.

ICAC further added that world cotton mill use will likely remain unchanged from 2014/15 at 24.3 million tons, while global cotton prices have remained similar to those registered last season.

After decreasingly steadily since 2010/11, China's mill use was stable at 7.5 million tons in 2014/15, but is projected to decline by 3 per cent to 7.3 million tons in 2015/16.

India's mill use is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 5.5 million tons while Pakistan's may drop by 12 per cent to 2.2 million tons.

ICAC also stated that while cotton consumption is expected to overtake production in 2015/16, the global supply of cotton is still abundant.

According to ICAC, world stocks at the end of 2015/16 are forecast to be 20.6 million tons, 58 per cent of which will be in China.

World imports are projected to decline in 2015/16 by 4 per cent to 7.3 million tons, while imports outside of China are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 6.1 million tons. (AR)

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