US retail sales to surge 4-6% in 2023: NRF forecast

Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 10 per cent and 12 per cent year-over-year (YoY) to a range of $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion. While many consumers continue to utilise the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfilment process. As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 per cent of total retail sales, as per NRF’s annual forecast.

NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around 1 per cent, reflecting a slower economic pace and half of the 2.1 per cent increase from 2022. Inflation is on the way down but will remain between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent for all goods and services for the year.

Although the labour market has remained resilient, NRF anticipates job growth to decelerate in the coming months in lockstep with slower economic activity and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions. The unemployment rate is likely to exceed 4 per cent before next year.

“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)