US retail sales up 5.6% YoY in Nov 2022 despite monthly drop: NRF

Clothing and clothing accessory store sales were down 0.2 per cent month-on-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted but up 1.7 per cent unadjusted YoY. Online and other non-store sales were down 0.9 per cent MoM seasonally adjusted but up 7.7 per cent unadjusted YoY, according to a press release by the NRF.

In October, sales were up 0.6 per cent MoM and up 6.2 per cent YoY. NRF’s numbers were up 6.5 per cent unadjusted YoY on a three-month moving average as of November, and up 7.2 per cent YoY for the first 11 months of the year. 

November accounts for the first half of the holiday season, which NRF defines as November 1–December 31, and the results are on track with NRF’s forecast that 2022 holiday sales will grow between 6 and 8 per cent over 2021. Even the low end of NRF’s forecast of between $942.6 and $960.4 billion in holiday sales would top last year’s record of $889.3 billion.

The US Census Bureau revealed overall retail sales in November were down 0.6 per cent from October but up 6.5 per cent YoY. That compares with increases of 1.3 per cent MoM and 8.3 per cent YoY in October, which saw a boost from earlier-than-usual holiday shopping driven by worries that inflation will continue to increase prices.

“Consumers continued to spend on household priorities and holiday gifts for loved ones this November despite continued inflation and rising interest rates,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “Holiday shoppers are demonstrating resilience, and retailers are providing great products and experiences at the right price levels to help stretch household budgets. Consumers have been shifting back to in-store shopping for a more traditional holiday shopping experience, and we expect record participation for this year’s Super Saturday shopping weekend.” 

“While job and wage gains and built-up pandemic-era savings supported holiday shoppers in November, shoppers were squeezed by inflation and higher interest rates,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “This was the first leg of the official holiday season and had a large hurdle to overcome with monthly comparisons because of early shopping in October, but the consumer remains surprisingly resilient. The healthy year-over-year comparison is more important and clearly shows that the economy is not in a recession. Spending is on track to meet our expectations for a solid holiday season.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (NB)