US retail sales saw strong rebound in March: NRF

Retail sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 18.3 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 104.6 per cent unadjusted year-over-year, according to NRF's calculation of retail sales.

“The dramatic increase of 17.7 percent in March retail sales over the same period last year confirms that a confident consumer is driving the economic rebound, and that should continue through the remainder of 2021,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “American households are clearly feeling the full effect of additional fiscal stimulus, gains in the job market and the reopening of the economy. Although there have been some recent issues related to vaccines, consumer confidence remains high and an optimistic outlook for the future continues to grow. Retailers remain committed, transparent and emphatic about prioritising customer and employee safety as they welcome shoppers back into their stores this spring.”

The data confirms reports that "people are going out and spending and that in-store traffic has picked up,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “After a disappointing February, there was a perfect alignment of factors supporting a surge in shopping in March. Further reopening of the economy was encouraged by economic stimulus payments, the public health situation improved with more vaccinations, employment grew and there was seasonal activity around Passover, Easter and spring break. Even with some stimulus money going to savings, consumers’ finances are healthy, and they are willing to spend. Retail sales supported by rigorous fiscal and monetary policy continue to be a bright spot in the economy and have provided momentum during this awful pandemic.”

Meanwhile, the US Census Bureau said that overall retail sales in March were up 9.8 per cent seasonally adjusted from February and up 27.7 per cent year-over-year. That compares with a monthly decrease of 2.7 per cent and a yearly gain of 6.7 per cent in February. Despite occasional month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, according to Census data.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed March was up 7.4 per cent seasonally adjusted from February and up 17.7 per cent unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with a month-over-month decrease of 3.4 per cent and an increase of 7.2 per cent year-over-year in February. NRF’s numbers were up 12.7 per cent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.

March retail sales increased across the board on a month-over-month basis and in every category except grocery on a year-over-year basis. The year-over-year comparisons were dramatic in some categories – clothing store sales more than doubled – but were skewed because most stores were ordered closed in mid-March last year because of the pandemic.

March’s gains come as NRF is forecasting that 2021 retail sales will increase between 6.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent over 2020, for a total between $4.33 trillion and $4.4 trillion. Retail sales during 2020 increased 6.6 per cent despite the pandemic, beating the previous record growth rate of 6.3 per cent in 2004.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RKS)