Home / Knowledge / News / Textiles / ADB trims growth forecast as Asia's biggest economies slow

ADB trims growth forecast as Asia's biggest economies slow

11
Dec '19
Pic: Asian Development Bank
Pic: Asian Development Bank
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia this year and next year to 5.2 per cent as growth in China and India is weighed down by both external and domestic factors. Manila-based ADB said this in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2019 Update released in September this year.

ADB's September forecast was gross domestic product (GDP) in the Asian region to be 5.4 per cent in 2019 and 5.5 per cent for 2020.

“While growth rates are still solid in developing Asia, persistent trade tensions have taken a toll on the region and are still the biggest risk to the longer-term economic outlook. Domestic investment is also weakening in many countries, as business sentiment has declined,” said ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “Inflation, on the other hand, is ticking up on the back of higher food prices, as African swine fever has raised pork prices significantly.”

The ADB supplement forecasts inflation of 2.8 per cent in 2019 and 3.1 per cent in 2020, up from the September prediction that prices would rise 2.7 per cent this year and next.

In East Asia, growth in China is now expected at 6.1 per cent this year and 5.8 per cent next year due to trade tensions and a slowdown in global activity coupled with weaker domestic demand, with family wallets being hit by pork prices that have doubled relative to a year ago. Growth could accelerate, however, should the United States and China come to an agreement on trade, the report says. In September, ADB forecast GDP growth of 6.2 per cent in 2019 and 6.0 per cent in 2020.

Hong Kong, China, already in technical recession, will see severe downward pressures persist possibly into 2020. The economy is now expected to contract 1.2 per cent this year and grow 0.3 per cent next year.

In South Asia, India’s growth is now seen at a slower 5.1 per cent in fiscal 2019-20 as the foundering of a major non-banking financial company in 2018 led to a rise in risk aversion in the financial sector and a credit crunch. Also, consumption was affected by slow job growth and rural distress aggravated by a poor harvest. Growth should pick up to 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2020-21 with supportive policies. In September, ADB forecast India’s GDP to grow 6.5 per cent in 2019 and 7.2 per cent in 2020.

In Southeast Asia, many countries are seeing continued export declines and weaker investment, and growth forecasts have been downgraded for Singapore and Thailand. GDP growth is expected to slow in the Pacific with activity in Fiji, the sub-region’s second largest economy after Papua New Guinea, expected to be more subdued than previously anticipated.

Central Asia is the only sub-region where prospects look a little brighter now than in September, largely thanks to increased public spending in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy. Central Asia is now forecast to grow 4.6 per cent in 2019, up from the previous prediction for expansion of 4.4 per cent.  The forecast for 2020 is for growth of 4.5 per cent. Kazakhstan’s economy is seen expanding by 4.1 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RKS)


Must ReadView All

Pic: Shutterstock

Textiles | On 25th Jan 2020

EU, 5 African nations start talks to deepen trade ties

The European Union (EU) recently concluded the first round of...

Pic: Shutterstock

Apparel/Garments | On 25th Jan 2020

Pak-PRC textile cooperation to focus on readymade garments

Chinese and Pakistani experts have agreed to forge a textile...

Pic: Shutterstock

Textiles | On 25th Jan 2020

India's GDP expected to grow at 5.5% YoY in FY21: IndRa

India's gross domestic product is expected to grow at 5.5 per cent...

Interviews View All

Textile industry, Head honchos

Textile industry
Head honchos

Relaxation in FDI norms will support growth of retail sector

Software Firms, Head honchos

Software Firms
Head honchos

AI / robotics may challenge existing long value chains

Ajay Ghariwala, Luthra Group

Ajay Ghariwala
Luthra Group

We are ready to adopt or follow every opportunity

Abhishek Dhanuka,

Abhishek Dhanuka

Vyom International Pvt Ltd, established in 2002, is one of Surat's leading ...

Laksheeta Govil,

Laksheeta Govil

Founded in 2014, Fizzy Goblet is a Delhi / NCR based handcrafted leather...

Will Qian,

Will Qian

Honghua Digital Technology Stock Co., Ltd. specialises in the R&D,...

Urs Stalder, Sanitized AG

Urs Stalder
Sanitized AG

Urs Stalder, CEO, Sanitized AG, talks about the increasing use of hygiene...

Prof Seokheun (Sean) Choi, Binghamton University, State University of New York (SUNY)

Prof Seokheun (Sean) Choi
Binghamton University, State University of New York (SUNY)

A team of researchers from the State University of New York (SUNY),...

S Ziya Gumuser, Teknomelt

S Ziya Gumuser
Teknomelt

Turkish nonwoven manufacturer Teknomelt has been around for only seven...

Madhu Jain, Madhu Jain

Madhu Jain
Madhu Jain

She grew up in the walled city of Old Delhi, completed her studies, and...

Sailesh Singhania, Sailesh Singhania Label

Sailesh Singhania
Sailesh Singhania Label

The Sailesh Singhania label was created to promote handwoven sarees and...

Jay Ramrakhiani, Occasions Elegance Wear

Jay Ramrakhiani
Occasions Elegance Wear

It is believed that by early 19th century, Varanasi weavers had moved away ...

Press Release

Press Release

Letter to Editor

Letter to Editor

RSS Feed

RSS Feed

Submit your press release on


editorial@fibre2fashion.com

Letter To Editor






(Max. 8000 char.)

Search Companies





SEARCH

Leave your Comments


January 2020

Subscribe today and get the latest update on Textiles, Fashion, Apparel and so on.


Advanced Search