France's leading economic index declines in March 2024: TCB

22 May '24

2 min read

France's leading economic index declines in March 2024: TCB

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France's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3 per cent in March 2024 to 111.6, following a 0.4 per cent decline in February 2024, marking a 1.8 per cent decrease over six months.
Conversely, the coincident economic index (CEI) increased by 0.1 per cent to 111, maintaining steady growth with a 0.3 per cent increase over the same period.

The leading economic index (LEI) for France experienced a decline in March 2024, falling by 0.3 per cent to 111.6 (2016=100), according to US-based think tank The Conference Board (TCB). This follows a 0.4 per cent decrease in February. Over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.8 per cent, indicating an accelerated pace of decline compared to the 0.3 per cent decrease observed in the previous six-month period.

In contrast, the coincident economic index (CEI) for France showed modest growth. The CEI increased by 0.1 per cent to 111 (2016=100) in March 2024, mirroring a similar 0.1 per cent rise in February. Between September 2023 and March 2024, the CEI grew by 0.3 per cent, continuing the 0.2 per cent gain recorded over the prior six months, as per TCB.

“The France LEI continued to fall in March, the ninth consecutive decline in a downtrend that started in July 2023,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. “The declining six-month growth trajectory of the France LEI, coupled with more widespread weaknesses among its components kept the recession signal on in March, suggesting that headwinds to growth remain. The Conference Board currently expects real GDP growth for France to be modest for 2024, reaching 0.9 percent for the year, with a slight pickup in the second half of year as the European Central Bank starts cutting interest rates.”

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