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Germany's manufacturing PMI hits 38-month low in July 2023: Survey

25 Jul '23
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • Germany's manufacturing PMI has declined to a 38-month low of 41.
  • The shrinkage in demand and decreased production have led to a drastic drop in new work orders.
  • The slowdown is impacting employment, with job creation hitting the weakest rate in over two years.
  • Meanwhile, input cost inflation has dipped to its lowest in nearly three years.
Germany's manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) output index has dropped to 41 in July from 43.6 in June, marking a 38-month low, according to the latest Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) flash PMI survey compiled by S&P Global. This fall signifies the third consecutive monthly decrease in manufacturing production, experiencing the steepest rate of decline since May 2020. The downward trend can be primarily attributed to a rapidly diminishing demand for goods.

With the downturn in manufacturing orders gathering pace, total inflows of new work showed the sharpest drop for more than three years in July. The sharp decrease in demand for goods reflected a range of factors, including customer hesitancy, destocking, high inflation and rising interest rates, reports from surveyed businesses showed. Data also indicated a decline in new export business across manufacturing.

A lack of incoming new work saw firms make further inroads into their backlogs of work during July. Moreover, the rate of decline was sharp and the quickest seen for over three years. A shrinking pipeline of outstanding business in turn contributed to a weakening of firms’ expectations towards future activity, which turned negative as pessimists outnumbered optimists for the first time since December last year, as per the survey.

In line with reduced inflows of new work and deteriorating expectations, the pace of employment growth across the German private sector slowed sharply in July. The overall rate of job creation was the joint-weakest in almost two-and-a-half years.

Whilst overall price pressures continued to ease during July, there were once again contrasting trends at the sector level. Input cost inflation maintained its downward trend—seen since last October—to reach the lowest for nearly three years. However, the result was driven entirely by a sharp and accelerated drop in manufacturing purchase prices—one of the fastest in the series history.

The situation was similar for output prices. Here, the overall rate of inflation hit a 29-month low, although it was still firmly above pre-pandemic historical average.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)

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