IMF cuts Bangladesh's GDP growth estimate again

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the economy is projected to grow by 5.7 per cent in 2023-24, a reduction from the previously forecast 6 per cent in October.

Initially, the GDP projection stood at 6.5 per cent.

Despite this downward revision, the IMF anticipates a rebound in GDP growth to 6.6 per cent in 2024-25. However, the IMF’s revision for the current fiscal year comes in the context of an improved global economic outlook for 2024, although maintaining a subdued forecast over the medium term.

Globally, the IMF expects a growth rate of 3.2 per cent for this year, slightly higher than its previous January forecast, with a similar growth rate projected for 2025.

Meanwhile, recent data from the state-run Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant slowdown in economic growth, with expansion halving to 3.78 per cent in the October-December quarter of FY24. This decline was attributed to a sharp reduction in manufacturing output growth due to weakened domestic consumption.

In response to these challenges, the government had already revised its growth projection downward to 6.75 per cent earlier this month, down from the initial target of 7.5 per cent set at the beginning of the fiscal year in July.

Additionally, the World Bank forecasts Bangladesh’s real GDP growth to remain relatively subdued at 5.6 per cent in FY24, compared to the pre-pandemic average of 6.6 per cent.

Among South Asian countries, the IMF projects varying GDP growth rates, with India leading at 6.8 per cent, followed by 2 per cent for Pakistan, 5.2 per cent for the Maldives, 4.3 per cent for Bhutan, and 3.1 per cent for Nepal.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DR)