Indian container cargo volume to grow at 8% in FY25: CareEdge Ratings

20 May '24

2 min read

Indian container cargo volume to grow at 8% in FY25: CareEdge Ratings

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Insights

Though the Red Sea crisis has led to a rise in voyage span by 15-20 days and higher freight rates, capacity liners' readiness to expand container capacity bodes well for mitigating the increased transit times of Indian container cargo, according to CareEdge Ratings.
The rating agency expects container volume in India to grow by 8 per cent at 342 MMT in FY25.

Though the Red Sea crisis has led to a rise in voyage span by 15-20 days and higher freight rates, capacity liners' readiness to expand container capacity—owing to healthy profitability by chartering additional vessels, cascading capacity from other regions, and accelerating fleet renewal—bodes well for mitigating the increased transit times of Indian container cargo, according to CareEdge Ratings.

The impact on cargo will primarily affect food grains and other perishable items, along with freight-sensitive or low-value cargo, which is estimated at 10-15 per cent of container volumes.

Therefore, the rating agency expects container volume in India to grow by 8 per cent at 342 million metric tonne (MMT) in FY25, amid the risk of a prolonged Red Sea crisis, it said in a recent report.

Going forward, significant adverse movement in charter rates impacting cargo volumes and vessels addition by shipping lines shall be worth monitoring, it said in a release.

India’s maritime sector is represented by the 12 major ports and more than 200 non-major ports along the 7,500 km of coastal line. Overall, cargo throughput at Indian ports is at its all-time peak at 1539 MMT for fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), reflecting close to 7 per cent growth over FY23.

Cargo throughput between FY21 and FY24 was also healthy, marked by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7 per cent. Resilient economic activity, increasing demand and consumption of major commodities, declining shipping freights and traffic recovery after the pandemic were the prominent growth drivers.

Cargo at Indian ports is dominated by crude oil, coal and containers. These three comprise three-quarters of the total cargo throughput handled by Indian ports.

CareEdge Ratings expects coal cargo throughput to grow at a CAGR of 3-4 per cent between FY24 and FY26, as the share of coastal cargo is expected to rise from 33 per cent in FY24 to 42 per cent by FY26.

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