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Cotton prices keep the upturn in Brazilian market

Jul '12
The Brazilian Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economic (CEPEA) reported that in late July, cotton growers were refrained from trading because they continue focused on the harvesting and ginning activities and on the accomplishment of contracts. This has led Brazilian prices to keep the upward trend. Sellers continue accomplishing contracts to export – this scenario is favored by high dollar quotes (above 2.00 Reais).

In early July, producers who were operating in the spot market charged above-average prices. Despite the harvesting period, when producers usually need to make cash flow to cover liabilities, most sellers were unwilling to close new trades in the spot market before wrapping up the accomplishment of contracts. Moreover, concerns with a possible crop failure have also led sellers to refrain. Producers who still have soybean to trade continued to sell the bean, because of record prices.

Despite the firm behavior of sellers, processors with immediate need to accept to pay higher quotes.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city, payment in 8 days) increased 1.91% in the partial of July (June 29 – July 13) and closed at 1.5764 real or 0.7738 dollar per pound on July 13.

According to data from Conab (National Company for Food Supply), the planted area in the 2011/12 Brazilian crops (first and second crops) totaled 1.396 million hectares, 0.3% below the previous season (1.4 million). The cotton yield might be 1,361 kilos per hectare, 2.8% below the crop before. The production may total 1.9 million tons, 3% lower compared to the previous season.

As for Brazilian exports, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), the total in June was 35.6 thousand tons of cotton, 39.7% more than the volume of May. In the first semester of 2012, shipments totaled 321 thousand tons, against 50.2 thousand tons in the same period of 2011.

The Brazilian Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economic (CEPEA)

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