So where do we go from here? The market is drifting sideways, waiting for something to generate momentum. Since the cash market remains tight until new crop supplies start moving in, there is no crop pressure just yet, which has allowed outside influences to act in support of prices.
However, we still feel that the market will trend lower once harvest pressure sets in. Since the board offers just a little over 2 cents of carry for the Dec/July spread and since China is likely going to be less active on the import front than last season, there should be plenty of cotton looking for a home in the not to distant future.
Only once this new supply has been reduced to a manageable level and new crop plantings start entering the discussion, may we finally see a long-lasting price recovery.
Plexus Cotton Limited