Cotton products continue to account for most of U.S. textile and apparel trade, although the recent share has declined as a result of fiber substitution.  During the first half of 2012, cotton product imports reached only 3.8 billion pounds, down from 4.2 billion during the first half of 2011.  Similarly, cotton textile exports reached 814 million pounds through June 2012, compared with 962 million through the corresponding period in 2011. As a result, the cotton product deficit for the first 6 months of 2012 equaled 3 billion pounds, about 8 percent less than in 2011.

For cotton product imports, the top five suppliers combined for nearly 63 percent of the total during January-June 2012, compared with 61 percent a year earlier and 62 percent for calendar year 2011.  Among the leading suppliers, only the import volume from India grew during the first 6 months of 2012.  The share of total imports increased for both China and India, while remaining unchanged for the other top suppliers.  China accounts for more than 30 percent of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports, with India contributing more than 9 percent.

For U.S. cotton product exports, the top five destinations through the first 6 months of 2012 accounted for a steady share of nearly 85 percent of the total.  Of the top five destinations, only exports to Canada were higher than the comparable period of 2011. 

The share of total exports was mixed for the top countries.  Honduras was the leading destination but its share is declining, falling below 36 percent during the first half of 2012; the share also decreased for the Dominican Republic. 

For Mexico—the second leading destination—the share rose to nearly 19 percent, similar to calendar year 2010; the shares for El Salvador and Canada continued their trend higher during the first half of 2012. 

Demand and Stock Estimates Revised

For 2012/13, U.S. cotton exports were reduced slightly as a result of declines in both world imports—particularly for China—and the U.S. crop.  U.S. exports are now forecast at 11.8 million bales, 300,000 bales below the August projection and similar to shipments in 2011/12.  As a share of world cotton trade, the U.S. export forecast indicates a share of 32 percent, between last season’s 26 percent and 2010/11’s 39 percent.

As a result of September’s adjustments, the 2012/13 ending stock estimate is now forecast at 5.3 million bales, just over 2 million bales above last season.  The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise considerably from 22 percent in 2011/12 to 35 percent this season.  Based on the current supply and demand estimates, the 2012/13 average upland cotton farm price is forecast to range between 62 cents and 78 cents per pound.  The midpoint of 70 cents would represent a 21-percent decrease from last season’s 88.5-cent estimate.  The final 2011/12 farm price will be released in October.

For 2011/12, slightly higher ending stocks are reflected in the September balance sheet.  Based on stocks data collected by FSA and adjustments made to account for cotton in transit at the end of the marketing year, U.S. ending stocks were increased to 3.35 million bales for last season, 750,000 bales above the beginning level, but still one of the lowest levels of the last decade.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)