“Global cotton output in 2014/15 is estimated at 119.4 million bales, which is similar from the previous season, as higher area is offset by a lower global yield,” the USDA informs in its latest October report.
The agency explains, “Although slightly below 2013/14, the October production estimate represents an upward revision from the previous month’s forecast, mainly reflecting increases for India, China, and Pakistan.”“Global cotton output in 2014/15 is estimated at 119.4 million bales, which is similar from the previous season, as higher area is offset by a lower #
World cotton harvested area is forecast at nearly 34.3 million hectares or 84.6 million acres in 2014/15, similar to 2012/13, while yield is forecast at 759 kilograms per hectare or 677 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest in five seasons.
USDA says output in India and China were raised 1 million bales each this month to 31 million and 30.5 million bales, respectively, as area and yield were projected higher.
For India, 2014/15 production is expected to equal the previous year as record harvested area is moderated by a reduction in yield. India’s area is forecast at 12.75 million hectares or 31.5 million acres, 9 percent above 2013/14, while yield is down 8 percent from last season’s record.
China’s 2014/15 production is projected 7 percent below 2013/14 as lower area more than offsets a record national yield. China’s harvested area of 4.4 million hectares or 10.9 million acres is the country’s smallest since 2000/01.
However, with a larger share of the crop grown in the Xinjiang region, where provincial yields surpass those of the eastern provinces, China’s yield is projected at a record 1,509 kilograms per hectare or 1,346 pounds per acre.
“Increases in China’s 2013/14 and 2014/15 production, relative to last month mainly reflect revised reports of 2013-crop cotton which entered the national reserve, indicating that production was higher than previously estimated,” the USDA report explains.
For Pakistan, USDA projects 2014/15 production at 9.8 million bales, up 300,000 bales from last month’s forecast. Pakistan’s crop is expected to be the highest since 2011/12 and the third highest on record, from a modest increase in both area and yield.
Global cotton mill use is expected to expand nearly 5 percent in 2014/15 to 113.7 million bales as lower fiber prices help push consumption to its highest since 2010/11. China, the world’s largest mill user, is projected to account for two-thirds of the increase in 2014/15.
This USDA explains, is due to policy changes, which are expected to make cotton yarn imports less attractive than spinning domestically-produced cotton. Resultantly, China’s cotton mill use is expected to grow 10 percent in 2014/15 to 38 million bales.
India’s cotton mill use is expected to expand 4 percent or 1 million bales in 2014/15 to 24.5 million bales, a record. In addition, a number of countries are forecast to achieve 200,000-bale gains in mill use, including Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh and Vietnam posting rise of 2, 3, 5 and 6 percent, respectively.