US cotton acreage forecast to decline in 2015: USDA

23 Apr '15

4 min read

With a trend that has continued for several decades, the West will account for only 2 per cent of the upland acreage in 2015.

Similarly, ELS area in the West is forecast at only 135,000 acres, 23 per cent below 2014; however, the region will account for 90 per cent of US ELS area in 2015.

The 2014/15 US cotton production estimate was raised this month to 16.3 million bales of which, upland production was placed at 15.74 million bales while the ELS crop was estimated at 565,000 bales.

With beginning stocks unchanged in April, this season’s cotton supply is now estimated at approximately 18.8 million bales, 2 million above 2013/14.

US cotton exports remain forecast at 10.7 million bales, up from 10.5 million bales in 2013/14 and with higher shipments and lower world trade, US share of global trade is expected to reach 31 per cent in 2014/15.

US cotton mill use is projected at 3.65 million bales, 100,000 bales or 3 per cent above 2013/14. US mill use had surpassed 2 million bales during the first 7 months of the marketing year, similar to a year ago.

With the increase in US production, ending stocks estimate have been increased similarly. Stocks are now forecast at 4.4 million bales, nearly 2 million bales above a year earlier and the highest in 6 years.

The current stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 31 per cent, compared with 17 percent for 2013/14 and with US ending stocks rising this season, US farm price is forecast to decline from 2013/14’s 77.9 cents per pound.

The average price received by upland producers for 2014/15 is projected to range between 59 and 61 cents per pound, the lowest farm price since 47.8 cents per pound in 2008/09. (AR)

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