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ECOM daily cotton market recap - Jan 29, 2007

Jan '07
The commodity market in general continued its weak pattern from the start of the year. FCOJ was the biggest victim today and lead to a red day for most of the markets. Grains, metals and energy were also down which all felt trade selling that pushed the Commodity index to new lows.

The FCOJ market had a nice bounce back on the 18th of Jan when it was estimated that a majority of the California citrus crop was lost to a winter freeze. Florida was already experiencing one of the smallest productions in 17 years, but it turns out that this freeze was actually bearish for FCOJ since more oranges will be juiced instead of boxed. This OJH'07 contract was down 6.50 cents of the 10 cent possible limit move.

We keep seeing profit taking and spec selling in commodities that are also having a bearish impact on cotton futures. The market is basically caught in a spread mode at the moment, with the majority of business rolling H'07 to K and N as we wait for the large hedge funds to start moving their large position next week. Volume was moderate today estimating under 10,000 contracts of futures and 5,000 options. The market is waiting for some fresh news to trade on, but for the moment the other weak commodities are putting pressure on cotton.

Cert stocks today are growing again close to 535,000 b/c with another 20,000 awaiting review. This should encourage the spreads to continue widening out as we approach first notice day. The NCC is being held this week on Austin, TX and many of the trade are interested to see what their estimate will be for 07/08 acreage. This number comes out Friday and is expected to be close to the USDA number released at the end of March. The market is expecting a cut of at least 1 mlyn acres.

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