NCC 24th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey
03 Feb '07
3 min read
"However, yield deviations observed over the past decade suggest that under ideal conditions, 22 million bales would not be out of the question, while severe weather problems could also push the crop to the 18-million bale range.”
Based on survey results, the Southeast, Mid-South, Southwest and Far West show intended upland cotton planting decreases of 22.1 percent, 19.6 percent, 6.6 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively.
Survey results for the Southeastern states show a significant shift into corn and, to a lesser extent, wheat. There is also a modest shift into soybeans. While Virginia decreases the most, 31 percent, Florida's intentions are only 2.4 percent less than last year. Georgia and Alabama growers indicate 23.5 and 18 percent decreases, respectively.
“Except for Tennessee, the sharp increase in corn prices will draw Mid-South cotton acreage into corn,” Slinsky said. “Not all of the reduction in Tennessee cotton acres will shift into corn; almost half of these cotton acres will shift into wheat.”
Oklahoma showed the greatest intended decrease in the Southwest – a 13.9 percent drop to 271,000 acres. Texas growers indicated intentions of six million acres, a 6.3 percent drop from last year. The Western region showed a projected 15.4 percent decline.
For the second consecutive year, California growers intend to plant less area to upland cotton. Unlike last year, when specialty crops pulled Upland cotton out of production, the shift will be to ELS cotton and wheat. If that state's growers plant the indicated 208,000 acres to cotton, it would represent a 27.1 percent decrease from the previous year. The survey revealed Arizona growers intend to increase upland area by 0.3 percent to 211,000.
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