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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - Feb 15, 2007

Feb '07
Electronic futures started out the day recovering a little before being unchanged basis the open outcry markets. There had been a little overnight export business, but for the most part the concentration lay for exiting the March and moving positions into May.

Having ventured all the way into flat carry yesterday, traders were intrigued as to where the spread would find resistance today. The direction of this spread was soon answered as immediately the March / May began trading an invert, firstly around 20 points and then as some of the larger spec shorts began to panic, the March went into Mayhem.

We heard rumors of funds buying over 1000 Marches each today, whilst the screws continued to tighten for the commercial trade on any inventory hedges in March. The March contract exploded as a result, brushing all the way through yesterday's trading range as well as bouncing up through the 53.00 level having bottomed out early around 51.75.

Spec stops and aggressive bull spreading pushed the March up to around the 53.75 level, however there was some commercial resistance at this level as it appears to be a level where commercials can begin to redeem and cert cotton against the March contract even. Prices remained firm, whilst the invert in March May moved all the way out to the 140 level by the close.

Yesterday the March open interest had liquidated a massive 16,733 to 33,645 lots, and it wouldn't surprise to see this number halved again today. Strange times indeed. March closed + 194 on the screen compared to May +65 and Dec +46. Est. volume was 52,615.

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