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Domestic outlook for cotton supply & demand

17
Feb '07
U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Overview:
The U.S. cotton crop for 2006/07 remains estimated at 21.7 million bales (upland at nearly 21 million and extra-long staple (ELS) at 756,000 bales), compared with the 2005/06 record of 23.9 million. Based on the latest Cotton Ginnings report, ginnings were about 97 percent complete by the beginning of February, with about 21.1 million bales ginned. The USDA will release the final 2006/07 ginnings as well as the final upland and ELS production estimates on May 11th.

Based on this production estimate and the current estimates for beginning stocks (6.1 million bales) and imports (25,000 bales), the 2006/07 U.S. cotton supply is forecast at 27.8 million bales, 5.5 percent below last season's record.

Meanwhile, total demand this season is projected to decline to 19.5 million bales, the lowest level in 4 years. As a result, 2006/07 ending stocks are forecast to rise 37 percent, to 8.3 million bales.

Export Projection Revised; Mill Use Estimate Unchanged:
The U.S. cotton export forecast was lowered nearly 8 percent this month, reflecting lower estimated imports by China and continued sluggish U.S. export sales and shipments.

At 14.5 million bales, U.S. cotton exports are 20 percent below last season's record but similar to shipments in 2004/05. With the expected decline, the U.S. share of world trade is also lower this month, to 36 percent, compared with last season's 40 percent.

U.S. cotton mill use, on the other hand, remains estimated at 5 million bales in February. Based on data from the Commerce Department, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of mill use has averaged just above 5 million bales for the August through December period.

Actual cotton mill use for the comparable period is running about 400,000 bales below 2005/06, a year in which cotton mill use reached 5.9 million bales. In 2006/07, cotton is currently estimated about 15 percent below last season and at the lowest level since 1931/32.

Click here to read more:

United States Department of Agriculture, USA


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