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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 2, 2007

03
Mar '07
Cotton began the day completely unchanged this morning, which was a fairly fitting start given the lack of activity and liquidity throughout the open outcry session. There was little in the form of overnight export business to speak of, and this morning's USDA outlook projections were not only covered yesterday by Keith Collins, but they are to be taken lightly at this time of year.

Open outcry prices started out around 10 higher, and seemed to trade at this level for the entire session. Spread trading was limited due to half the floor traders being in Florida playing golf, so it was left to the other markets to provide us with entertainment, which the base metals managed to do (Silver down 5%, Gold down 3.5%).

Cotton finished around 12 higher in May, and there is little else to comment as the trading range was just 25 points. Estimated volume was surprisingly up to 17,287 lots in what felt like a 3,000 lot day. USDA Outlook projections were released this morning in follow up to Keith Collin's speech, with the US balance sheet for 07/08 reflecting a 13.0M planted acres, 20.0 MB production, 18MB exports and a final carryout of 5.8MB.

Last week's CCC cotton under the loan saw a net 300,459 bales exit the loan, comprising of 427,110 repayments and 126,651 new entries. Loan stocks are now 13,744,331 bales outstanding, though we expect to see some more large repayments next week given the 80 point rise in AWP week to week.

The CFTC supplemental report today showed the overall non commercials to have a net position of 7.1% short (including options delta adjusted). The Index long rose 1,451 lots to 94,999 lots. Commercials hold a net 90,172 lot short position.


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