Post maintains the estimate for MY 2006/07 (August-July) cotton production at a record 21.0 million 480 lbs bales (4.57 million tons), which is supported by the strong pace of market arrivals so far this year. Consumption is raised to 18.3 million bales (3.99 million tons) on higher than anticipated demand for cotton textile products, both export and domestic. Exports are forecast at 4.3 million bales (935,000 tons), a record level for India.
Strong Market Arrivals Confirm Record MY 2006/07 Crop: Post maintains the estimate for MY 2006/07 cotton production at a record 21.0 million bales (4.57 million tons). The latest cotton market arrival figures support this estimate. The Cotton Advisory Board is currently estimating production at 21.1 million bales, while estimates of various industry sources range from 20.7 to 21.5 million bales.
Market arrivals of cotton from this year's crop up to February 17, 2007, were 20 percent ahead of last year at 15.9 million bales. Arrivals have eased since early February, with the current arrivals estimated at 55 to 63 thousand bales per day vs. 115 to 120 thousand bales a year ago, and are expected to remain at this level through April.
Market sources attribute this to larger than normal arrivals of seed cotton by farmers during the peak marketing season (November through January) due to a higher share of Bt cotton varieties. Bt cotton varieties give excellent yields in early pickings, and thus farmerstake only 2-3 pickings.
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