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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 7, 2007

Mar '07
Cotton futures prices were a little lower in the early E session and with little overnight news or export business to be reported, most expected another quiet day in the cotton pit once it opened. Early in the open outcry session prices actually slipped a little, with May trading down to 53.25 amidst some bearish options activity out of one of the largest merchants.

Soon though May was to about turn as some speculative interests decided to test out the upside. This proved to be quite a good move, as before long May began testing once again the 54.00 resistance that has proven to be too much of late. Today was the charm though, and once broken, a stream of fund buy stops were triggered, exploding the market higher.

It wasn't until beyond 54.50 that any noticeable trade selling was encountered, and at this point the funds were clearly in buy mode. Compounding to the move today was a real tightening of the May/July spread and the May/Dec spread, as funds predominantly bought May and the commercial trade were selling July around 55 cents.

This natural effect saw the May / July spread trade in as narrow as 25 points premium having settled at 70 yesterday. Commercial selling at the highs was enough to ease prices back towards the close, with May settling 81 higher at 54.40 having touched a high of 54.80. Estimated volume was robust at 28,360 lots.

Tomorrow's US export sales and shipments are expected to be decent, especially amidst rumors of heavy consigned stocks to China from one of the largest US merchants. We are expecting a sales figure approaching 300,000 bales and shipments near 225,000 bales.

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