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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 8, 2007

Mar '07
Cotton prices did not follow through on yesterday's advances in early dealings this morning, mostly because the commercials were immediately offering May futures at unchanged and higher for spot redemptions out of the loan. The open outcry session opened around 10 lower before tracking down to the 54.25 level where some light spec support was seen.

Yesterday's rally took the market to a price point that represented an 11c spread between the AWP (officially 43.50) and May futures, hence there was a large amount of commercial hedging uncovered, which remained throughout today at 54.50 May and 54.90+ in July. Spreads managed to adjust to around 55-60 points May premium having tightened into 25 yesterday.

Specs began to accumulate both Mays and Julys through the mid session which firmed prices over the rest of the session. There was sufficient commercial offers over unchanged for this area to not really be advanced upon, but prices did look firm at the end of the open outcry session. Prices eased back to close the E session with active month losses of 4-13 points. Estimated volume today was mediocre at 13,795 lots.

Today's export sales and shipments were fairly vanilla, with new sales of 199,100 combined upland and Pima (Turkey bought 59,500 bales). Export shipments were 249,500 combined running bales.

Tomorrow morning's USDA supply and demand estimates are expected to again see a cut in US exports of as much as 300,000—500,000 bales from last months estimate of 14.5 million bales. Elsewhere we are expecting some reductions in the Franco West African and the Indian Production estimates that should overall balance the world ending stocks.

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