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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 14, 2007

Mar '07
Electronic futures began the day in a very unlively fashion after yesterday's steep decline, and with no real fundamental news in the market—aside from further overnight equity weakness in Asia—and hence the open outcry started out very quietly, with an unchanged bid. There appeared to be a scattering of trade bids, likely hedging some export business overnight.

May attempted a recovery early on, but had few supporters, especially as it got towards 54.00 cents and the locals soon turned against it, with all covers working back to and through the unchanged levels. Unlike yesterday there was not really any fund selling or participation for that matter, which kept the overall range quite narrow.

Spread trading was narrow in the May / July, trading around 80 for most of the session and settling just under 90 premium to May. Options saw a lot of calendar spreading between May/July but not a lot of delta heavy trade. Options volatility remains weak around 14.5% in May and 18.5% in July.

Price actually improved in the electronic session after the open outcry close, finishing with active fans of 14-22 points. Estimated volume was 11,728 lots. Tomorrow's Export report is not expected to contain any surprises, so we will predict a rather vanilla 200,000 sales and 200,000 shipments and be surprised with any variance from these.

May did little to impress today, failing at the 9 day average and being unable to gain back anything significant from yesterday's sell off. For not the 53.50 area is holding up quite well, which needs to continue for the relatively new spec long position to remain safe.

The 9 day moving average is continuing to converge on and about to overtake the 50 day average, suggesting some more spec buying involvement at higher levels should this materialize.

Momentum wise things are quite even after the recent sell off, now at 48.49 having started to trend up over the past week or so.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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