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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 15, 2007

Mar '07
Little change early on this morning, with something of a bid tone under the market, but without any great conviction. The May began the day about 30 higher in the E session before opening around 25 higher in the open outcry session. There was little follow through buying at higher levels though, and soon prices eased back amidst very little overall participation both on and off the floor.

Although there was some outside weakness with the grain complex, cotton just couldn't get going one way or another, trading in a very tight range for the rest of the session. The spreads traded narrowly, collecting 75-80 premium for May / July, whilst option trading mostly revolved around the funds' insatiable appetite for owning out of the money new crop calls.

Prices eventually settled some 5-8 points lower in the open outcry session, with the final bell sounding like an alarm clock to the snoozing market participants. Estimated volume was expectedly light at 7,777 lots.

This morning's US export sales and shipments were actually better than our anticipations, with new sales of 272,000 bales upland and Pima being the highlight. China were the majority buyer with a combined 109,500 bales whilst Turkey buying 64,500 bales. Export shipments were decent at 217,000 bales.

Another down day for May, trading in the exact same range as yesterday's session. The short term trend line support looks to have been breached, with a close at 53.47, and this must concern the new longs in the market.

The moving averages have again started to fall, with the 9 day turning down to 53.80. The fact that the session ranges have been so narrow do not preclude to any immediate trends, however we feel that Cotton is going to have to take cue from something soon.

Momentum wise things are quite even after the recent sell off, now at 46.72 looking quite flat line of late.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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