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Cotton prices manage to track very narrow range

Apr '07
This morning's USDA world supply and demand estimates were released around 7.30 and overall there was little reaction to them. Electronic futures were trading around 20 higher at their release and right up until the open outcry session.

It seems that anything bearish in the report—the US ending stocks were raised 400,000 bales to 9.2Mio-were priced into the market via yesterday's decline. By the time the open outcry session opened, the market was overall back to unchanged with more spec selling matching off with trade buying.

It seems that current levels are one of price agreement, with good absorbing of spec selling, as well as heavy volume being poured into the spreads. Prices managed to track a very narrow range throughout the day, and it was again quickly reverted to a spread session, as day 2 of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fund roll kicked in.

Interestingly after yesterday weakness, the May / July spread was initially very strong, tracking into 140 points July premium, before index flows moved this again back out to the 160-165 area.

By the close the theoretical difference was back to 170. Aside of the roll there was little true range, and prices settled 16 lower to 6 higher in the actively traded months. Estimated volume was again huge, at 55,244 lots.

This morning's spec hedge report showed the specs trimming back their long position somewhat, moving from 6.6% net long to 5.0% net long. Overall net longs were reduced from 15,337 lots to 11,650 lots.

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