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Export report again shows decent picture including Pima sales

Apr '07
Futures were again up in the early electronic session, reflecting a recent pattern of higher electronic trading before moving back to unchanged by the time the open outcry session begins. May was trading around 20 higher initially before opening at unchanged in the open outcry session.

There appeared to be a steady stream of spec fund selling early on, and this immediately put pressure on both the May and July, with May taking out yesterday's lows quickly enough. Soon prices tracked down towards the old contract lows in May at 51.45, and there was again notable commercial support in this area, representing scale down mill fixation buying.

Funds and locals continued to sell through this support, which paved the way for new lows and eventually down to 51.10 in May. A lot of the selling went through the July as well, which curiously narrowed the May / July spread a little, despite the overall sell off.

This spread again traded heavily, in this the 4th day of the official GSCI roll. Prices remained under pressure throughout the session, and any attempted recovery was soon thwarted by more fund selling late in the session. Prices finished the session weak, with active month losses of 45-77 points. Estimated volume was again massive with 72,898 lots trading.

This morning's US export report was again very decent, with new sales of 352,000 running bales including Pima. China was again the principle buyer last week with 172,100 bales. Shipments continue to lag, but were nonetheless decent at 286,900 bales. The USDA this week revised its US export estimate down from 14.0 to 13.5 million bales. Even with this revision the US is going to have to ship an astounding 414,400 running bales per week to meet this estimate.

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