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Dawn likely to see huge export sales & shipments

19
Apr '07
The electronic market started out a little firmer this morning, with the usual overnight foreign growth hedge lifting noted in the early dealings. Prices continued to trade firm in the open outcry session, with a quick test of the unchanged level holding up well enough for commercials to actively cover recent export business.

From this perspective there appeared to be a solid bid to the market for much of the remaining session, as much a corrective session as anything, but prices have definitely fallen to a level where the export mills are very happy to buy at.

Spreads were again active, and despite an improvement in flat prices, the pressure remained on the May / July switch, trading out to 210 in early dealings before settling at 195. There was some good fund buying in the December throughout the last hour, it must be noted that at 56.00-56.50 there doesn't appear to be enough risk premium in the December with the crop not in the ground yet.

Prices settled near the highs, but the overall range was pretty slight at just 60 points. Estimated volume was again solid at 37,446 lots. This morning's spec hedge showed that the specs have trimmed their longs right back, from 5% net long back to 0.2% net long.

The overall spec position is now just 472 contracts long as of last Friday. The first 2 days of selling this week should see their actual position closer to 5% net short.

Tomorrow morning's US export sales and shipments are anticipated to be quite large, given both the lower flat price levels and drop as well as the amount of commercial buying that has been noted in the pits over the last week. Expect a 400,000 plus sales figure at minimum and a 300,000 plus shipment figure.


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