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July pit-traded cotton sees support at 50.72 cents

Apr '07
Trade volume was light as the market bounced higher and put in a small gain to close above 51.00 for N'07. The contracts traded on the floor was estimated at only 6,300 and 5,600 electronically.

Options were mixed with some friendly call buying of the Z'07 70 strikes around 300 pts. giving some of the support. The Dow Jones broke 13,000 and other commodities found a bounce based on positive economic news.

Tomorrow's export sales report is anticipated to reflect more good business that may be close to last week's marketing year high of 827,000 b/c in sales. The range in the market is expected between 400,000 and 600,000 b/c with shipments about the same as last week between 250-300,000 b/c.

The good export sales reports should start to build a technical bottom to the market that we can build on going forward. However, Chinese cotton buying offices are closed next week for the annual Labor day holiday. This may reflect some more sluggish sales in the near future combined with a possible bounce in NY.

May open interest fell to 1,700 contracts as Term commodities delivered another 1,300 contracts of cert stock yesterday.

We will see tomorrow how the balance of the May futures play out. Moving averages are both trending lower, with the 9 day continuing it's divergence away from the 50 day at 51.81 compared to 53.80. Momentum continues negative with the RSI down to 38.06, well and truly in oversold territory.

Technically, July pit-traded cotton sees support at 50.72 cents, the 50.22 contract low, then the 48.68 low from April on the continuation chart, 48.50 and 46.50 cents. Resistance is met at 51.40, 51.70 cents, 51.84, 51.92, 52.08,52.20 and 52.40 cents.


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July 2021

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