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Cotton export sales report within expectations

Apr '07
Another day another new life-of-contract low. We saw what felt like panic selling from the trade through bearish options in record volumes. This triggered sell stops from specs and locals that drove the market close to limit down (-250 pts!) at one point in the morning.

The heavy selling just could not find any buyers and the market which was already close to contract lows fell until some trade scale down buying and some profit taking finally arrived. The futures volume was very respectable at a combined 30,000 contracts, but the most impressive was the same amount in options with a combined 30,000 puts and calls.

Export sales report was within expectations at over 500,000 bales in new sales with 35% to China and 10% each going to Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Taiwan. Good distribution of sales and after the market, we will probably see another good sales report next week.

Even the shipments set a marketing year high with 360,000 b/c and will be a big help to get closer to the USDA target. However, we are still almost 40% behind where we were last year in exports and looking at domestic sales which came out showed that we have fallen 10% in consumption as well.

These factors combined with a good crop have been adding to ending stocks, which are now approaching 10 million bales or more and over 50% stocks to use. All of these factors along with new crop Northern Hemisphere off to a good start are contributing to the weakness in NY thatis having trouble building a bottom.

Moving averages are both trending lower, with the 9 day continuing it's divergence away from the 50 day at 51.44 compared to 53.74. Momentum continues negative with the RSI down to 31.44, well and truly in oversold territory. July cotton sees support at 48.70, 47.60, 46.50 and 45.00 cents. Resistance is seen at 50.73, 51.40, 51.56 and 51.70 cents.


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